Getting uncomfortably public about addiction, mental health, substance abuse, and other random stuff through unfiltered stream-of-consciousness writing [is that redundant?]. Subscribe here:
Introductory Remarks
Dear Zesters,
In Wednesday’s post, Authentic Interactions, I reflected on the more authentic and, like, fundamentally kind of fulfilling relationships that I’ve been creating with new people in my life. And really I think the main point I was trying to make was that, I’m no longer living life according to some externally-driven idea of how I should behave—and, for what feels like the first time in my life, I’m really just letting myself live—and just being myself, and not questioning, or overthinking, or judging. I’m just living. And it feels like a massive weight has been lifted from my shoulders, and my truest self can shine—and I can discover and craft him with the world and those I interact with. It’s fun!
Battleship Royale
That subtitle isn’t really accurate for what’s about to occur in this here webpage. But so today I basically just wanted to have some fun with Google Trends and compare some like popular rivals within the broader like world of consumer brands. For 2 of these 3 comparisons I feel very strongly about their suitability as rivals, and then for the 3rd I’m honestly kind of just guessing and it doesn’t feel like super apples-to-apples—and that’s okay! Alright, let’s just get into it.
Honk Honk, Bitch
So here basically we have the google trends data for Uber as Lyft, and what’s most striking to me is the clear superiority of Uber relative to Lyft really throughout the duration of their rivalry. I know there’re publicly available sources of information with like actual historical financial information, and that’s all well and good, but this still gives us a good snapshot (literally) of like their degree of penetration with the American consciousness—and Uber’s clear superiority there. I also think it’s interesting to see Uber’s post-COVID comeback compared to a pretty hardcore plateau / modest-decline from Lyft, which I think explains recent publicity around like the company’s struggles. I’m sure there’re other things to say here but I’ll leave those things unsaid.
Scoot Scoot, Bitch
Okay so here we have another good old fashioned face-off between some darlings of the late 2010s (at least in the startup ecosystem), Bird and Lime. What’s interesting to me is how aligned their general interest cycles are, which makes sense—and I think I’m also fascinated by Bird’s early-days jump in interest relative to Lime. I guess maybe this is due to like a slightly earlier launch, but it’s really striking how much that early progress compounds for the summer 2019 jump in Bird interest levels. And then things basically even out, with a slight advantage to Bird in the 2020s on. I also think it’s interesting to observe just the general decline across the entire industry. Bird just recently filed for bankruptcy I’m pretty sure. I remember when it was like a $2B darling and Mark Suster and Travis Vanderzanden were the talk of the town. I bought in so hard to the hype, so I’m certainly not innocent in this analysis. But it’s just insane how far the company has fallen. I also think I just still have to do some real reflecting on the general like startup world and my personal excitement levels for random shit in the late 2010s, and like the ZIRP-environment, and how it really bred like endemic and pervasive irrationality. And then you also like study the madness of crowds and imagine yourself to be a rational observer like standing at the edge of the irrational crowd, laughing at their folly, ripe with bonhomie (just wanted to work in ‘bonhomie’ there). But really it’s weird when you realize that you’re part of the mad-crowd without even knowing. I miss you, SBF. :’(
Glam Glam, Bitch
[Feel like I could have done better there]
Okay, like I hinted at the very beginning of this section, I don’t really think this is a super fair like apples-to-apples comparison, because Supergoop! is obviously like a suncare brand and then Glossier is a skincare and cosmetics brand, and so really this isn’t I don’t think a very good comparison, and that’s okay! I just respect these brands. But what I ended up finding kind of interesting with this comparison chart, and I really have no idea why this is the case, is that there does seem to be like counter cyclical interest levels [might be misusing ‘countercylical’ there] insofar as, like, if you look at teh chart Supergoop seems to peak when Glossier is trough-ing, and vice versa—and I really have no idea why that would be the case. It could be purely seasonal? But I don’t know why Glossier products would trend down in the Spring/Summer months. I don’t view Glossier products as like being replaced by sunscreen, but maybe I’m totally wrong? I also think it’s interesting to compare the broader growth trajectory of the companies, with Glossier obviously popping off and then going through a bit of a decline and then modestly rebounding, but never quite recapturing the excitement. Whereas Supergoop has been a pretty consistent slow burn for quite some time. We’ll see if it can keep pushing things, though, as it seems like it could be hitting a bit of a plateau. But, still fun stuff! Despite all the question marks.
Concluding Remarks
I hope this exercise encourages you to remember that there’s always a clear #1 and #2, and it is no fun to be #2. :) KIDDING!!! We shan’t focus on competition, customers-customers-customers is the key! The rest will sort itself out. Or so Jeff says. Have an awesome beautiful amazing incredible lovely wonderful weekend you beautiful person!!
With infinite zest for life,
Luke